Youyang Gu, whose pandemic model had been quoted recently, has walked back his statement described by Unleash Prosperity Hotline Issue #293 as a “widely cited and wrongheaded analysis a few months ago that found Republican states fared worse in controlling the virus.”
Gu said, “I’ve actually adjusted my position a bit since that Tweet… political lean [the % of the vote that is Democratic in a state] is not really a factor. So it was a bit unfair to selectively slice the data around an arbitrary date like September.”
“As we all know, the level of restrictions is strongly correlated with the political leaning of a state…But political lean (and level of restrictions) is NOT correlated with total Covid deaths…”
Gu stated, on Twitter, “Is containing COVID-19 a requirement for preserving the economy? My analysis suggests: probably not. In the US, there is no correlation between Covid deaths & changes in unemployment rates. However, blue states are much more likely to have higher increases in unemployment.”
The Unleash Prosperity Hotline newsletter concludes, “Given the massive costs of lockdown, there would have to be overwhelming evidence of benefit to justify ever doing it again. There is none.”
